The global shipping industry is entering 2026 clearly defined as a "shipper-driven market." This trend is being driven by a growing imbalance between supply and demand, coupled with a cooling of freight rates, according to a recent industry outlook report published by Sarjak Container Lines. Commenting on the market outlook for this year, Supal Shah, CEO of Sarjak Container Lines, said: “While freight rates are expected to normalize strongly from recent highs, the industry is unlikely to return to pre-crisis stability due to persistent geopolitical, regulatory, and environmental risks.” Mr. Shah further emphasized: “2026 will bring relief in freight rates, but not certainty. Structural oversupply, permanently higher costs, and volatility are now a characteristic, not a temporary phase, of global shipping.” Key Market Highlights for 2026 Based on in-depth analysis, here are the key trends that will shape the industry this year: • Supply-Demand Imbalance : Global fleet capacity is projected to grow by 3.6%–5% , far exceeding demand growth of only 1.5%–3% . Ship order books currently account for 26%–28% of existing fleets, the highest level in over a decade. • Falling freight rates : Average global spot rates are expected to fall by as much as 25% year-on-year. Meanwhile, long-term contract rates could fall by 8%–12% as shippers regain their negotiating position. • Financial losses : Industry-wide profits are expected to weaken significantly. Many analysts forecast losses could reach $10 billion in 2026 due to declining revenue and structurally high operating costs. • Suez Canal Variable : If ships were to revert to routes through the Suez Canal, shorter voyage times would free up approximately 10% of global shipping demand, exacerbating the problem of excess effective capacity. • Dry Bulk segment : Expected to remain weak but stable, with potential for growth if global trade volumes recover or geopolitical tensions ease. • Trade risks : Rising protectionism and changing U.S. tariff regimes remain major uncertainties that could disrupt established trade routes. Adapting to the New Legal and Technological Environment The year 2026 also marks major changes in market regulations and behavior: • Environmental costs : From January 1st, the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) switched to 100% emission compliance, adding a permanent cost structure for routes involving Europe. • Shipper strategy : Shippers are shifting from fixed-year contracts to continuous freight management, utilizing real-time price analytics and AI-based procurement tools. • Fleet optimization : Shipowners are prioritizing asset lifecycle optimization and fuel flexibility (including LNG, methanol, and biofuels) to meet decarbonization targets. Concluding his assessment of this year's outlook, Supal Shah stated: “While 2026 is expected to bring lower freight rates and better cost predictability for shippers, the global shipping industry remains structurally fragile. Oversupply, regulatory costs, and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to shape a market that is less prone to crises, but far from stability.”