Processing cashew nuts for export at Hoang Son 1 Joint Stock Company, Binh Phuoc. Photo: Son Trang. 2024 is a successful export year for the Vietnamese cashew industry with a record export volume of 765,368 tons and a record turnover of over 4.6 billion USD. Vietnam continues to affirm its position as the world's largest cashew exporter for 18 consecutive years. This is an important foundation for the Vietnamese cashew industry to enter the 2025 production season. According to the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), up to now, the cashew crop in Vietnam and other countries has been normal. The world's raw cashew output is forecast to increase due to the new planting area reaching the harvest period. Leading traders in the cashew industry in Binh Phuoc (the largest cashew growing and processing province in Vietnam) also share the same opinion that this year's cashew output will increase. At the conference to update the crop situation, prices, market trends and agree on the purchasing plan for 2025 organized by the Binh Phuoc Cashew Association, Mr. Vu Thai Son, Chairman of the Binh Phuoc Cashew Association, predicted that this year, the global raw cashew output will increase by 8-10% compared to 2024. Mr. Ta Quang Huyen, General Director of Hoang Son 1 Joint Stock Company (Binh Phuoc) commented that this year, global cashew productivity will increase by 10%, and total output may increase from 15 to 20%, due to many new areas being put into exploitation. The reason Mr. Huyen can confidently make the above forecast is because Hoang Son 1 has conducted surveys and collected information about the crop season in Vietnam, Cambodia and some African countries, including Tanzania. For many years, Hoang Son 1 has purchased a large quantity of raw cashews from Tanzania every year. This year, up to the beginning of March, Hoang Son 1 has purchased more than 20 thousand tons of raw cashews from Tanzania. no gold buy air conditioner Global cashew output is forecast to increase this year. Photo: Son Trang. Mr. Huyen shared that right from the beginning of the Tanzanian crop, Hoang Son 1 sent people to this country to evaluate the productivity and output of cashew nuts. When the price of Tanzanian raw cashew nuts was offered by exporters at 2,000 to 2,050 USD/ton, Hoang Son 1 did not buy. Then, the price dropped to 1,900 and then 1,850 USD/ton, the company did not buy either. When the price dropped another 50 USD/ton, the company bought a little. Then the price of Tanzanian raw cashew nuts continued to drop to 1,700, 1,600, to 1,400, even 1,350 USD/ton, with each drop, Hoang Son bought more. The continuous price drop shows that Tanzanian cashew nut output this year is higher than last year. According to Mr. Huyen, in 2022, Tanzania's raw cashew output will be 270 thousand tons. In 2023, cashew output will decrease to 240 thousand tons. In Tanzania's 2024 cashew crop, output will increase to 440 thousand tons. It is worth noting that the cashew crop in Tanzania is often similar to that in Vietnam, Cambodia and West African countries. If the 2023 cashew crop in Tanzania fails, then the 2024 cashew crop in Vietnam, Cambodia and West Africa will also fail (the cashew crop in Tanzania takes place in the last quarter of the previous year, corresponding to the cashew crop in Vietnam, Cambodia, West Africa... taking place early next year). In Tanzania's 2024 cashew crop, despite many unseasonal rains, the yield is still bountiful. Therefore, it is forecasted that the 2025 cashew crop in Vietnam, Cambodia, West Africa... will have good developments, with an increase in yield. Therefore, Mr. Huyen affirmed that this year, African raw cashew traders will not dare to keep their goods. If they do, they will only keep a small amount when the price has dropped significantly. When production increases but raw cashew traders do not dare to keep their goods, the price of raw cashew cannot increase but only goes down. Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa, Vice President of VINACAS, said that cashew and dried fruit traders around the world all believe that global cashew output this year will increase from 10 to 15%. Thus, global cashew output this year will reach nearly 6 million tons. Due to increased production, the price of African raw cashews is on the decline. Meanwhile, the price of cashew nuts on the world market from May onwards is difficult to predict accurately. Therefore, according to some cashew traders, businesses should not rush to buy raw cashews when the price is still high, but should consider and calculate carefully, only buying when the price of raw cashews is at a reasonable level compared to the selling price of cashew nuts, thereby ensuring production and business efficiency.