Not only that, Vietnam's cashew processing industry is at risk of competition from countries that have long mainly exported raw cashew materials such as Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Ghana. Position of Vietnam's cashew industry According to INC statistics, Vietnam's raw cashew output in the 2022-2023 season ranks 4th in the world with 350,000 tons, accounting for about 7% of the proportion, and only 1/3 of the output of the leading country. Ivory Coast with 1.25 million tons of raw cashew nuts. However, in terms of exports, Vietnam can be proud of its superior position. On average in the last 5 years, Vietnam exported about 393,000 tons of cashew kernels, accounting for nearly 63% of the global export market. According to data from the General Department of Customs, accumulated in the 11 months of 2023, Vietnam's estimated cashew export output is about 582,000 tons, an increase of 23.1% over the same period in 2022. Regarding the input material market, Cambodia is the largest source of raw cashew nuts for Vietnam with a proportion of about 30%, followed by African countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria... Meanwhile, the US is the Vietnam's largest cashew kernel export market with the accumulated volume of 3 quarters this year reaching 110,229 tons, accounting for nearly 25%. Next are China, Netherlands, Germany... It is possible to imagine Vietnam's important intermediary role in the cashew industry supply chain: importing raw materials from Southeast Asia and Africa, then processing and exporting to developed countries. However, recently, Nigeria announced that it will soon become another Vietnam, with plans to import raw cashew nuts and will not only process what the country is growing, but also import from other countries. other Africa for processing in Nigeria. Currently, there are 5 cashew processing factory projects being implemented, and the smallest of them has an output of 15,000 tons/year. A representative of Starlink Global Nigeria Limited shared that Vietnam started processing cashew nuts in 1992 and is currently the largest cashew processing country in the world. Meanwhile, 75% of the world's cashew supply is grown and exploited in Africa. Therefore, Nigeria's ambition is to import the majority of raw cashew nuts from neighboring areas for processing and export, in order to create a lot of added value that benefits the people of the country. Currently, Nigeria is only ranked 2nd in Africa in cashew processing, after Ivory Coast. Because Ivory Coast is the country with the largest raw cashew production in the world, when witnessing Nigeria's ambition, it must be difficult for this country to stand out from the trend of developing the raw material nut processing industry they have created. available in abundance. Profit margin decreased From the beginning of 2019 to the end of November 2023, cashew kernel export prices and raw cashew raw material prices are both on the same downward trend. However, if calculated specifically, the price of imported raw cashew nuts from 2019 up to now has decreased from 1,500 USD/ton to 1,000 USD/ton, equivalent to a decrease of 500 USD/ton. Equivalent conversion, to make 1 ton of cashew kernels requires about 4.5 tons of raw cashews. So from 2019 to now, the cost of raw materials to make 1 ton of cashew kernels has decreased by about 2,250 USD/ton. But during the same period, the export price of cashew nuts decreased by more than 3,000 USD/ton. That's not to mention other costs that have increased significantly in the past 5 years, such as interest costs, labor wages, logistics costs, space rental costs, ... The decrease in value of the cashew industry comes from the fact that the cashew industry must buy raw materials 6 months in advance. Meanwhile, in early 2023, businesses bought raw materials at high prices, but in the following months, world export prices gradually decreased. At the same time, businesses also have to face high interest costs, fluctuating exchange rates... leading to almost no business efficiency. The year 2024 is considered to still have many difficulties, although at the end of this year, import orders from countries in Europe, America, China, Japan... still show positive, because it is the season of the year. consumption due to festivals. Cashew processing factories still receive busy orders. However, the difficulty is high raw material prices and interest costs. The wave of shifting to green production also causes difficulties in order development, due to having to meet requirements on environmental standards, social responsibility... Meanwhile, the source of raw materials for domestic purchasing decreased because the planted area is shrinking. At the same time, the price of raw cashew materials is likely to return to an upward trend due to the current El Nino weather problem, but the selling price of cashew kernel products is unlikely to increase correspondingly due to the shrinking consumption growth trend due to the The impact of tightened monetary policy is gradually permeating developed economies, which consume the output of the export cashew processing industry.