In the last days of the New Year, I organized a group of experts to survey and evaluate the 2022 cashew crop in Vietnam and Cambodia. All is normal but the crop will come late because this year's dry season comes late. But surprisingly, after the Lunar New Year, unseasonal rains accompanied by thunderstorms hit cashew orchards in many places in Binh Phuoc and Cambodia. There is information in Cambodia, many cashew orchards are submerged in water. Season 1 certainly suffered a great loss in both output and quality (estimated 30-40%). Meanwhile, the cashew crop in West African countries is going normally; The reports of the Cotton and Cashew Council Ivory Coast (CCA), the Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN) and the Vietnamese brothers working in West Africa show that. In terms of processing, before Tet, most of the small and medium-sized factories in Vietnam were closed due to running out of raw materials; After Tet, about a quarter of businesses reopened but in moderation due to low supply and high prices. Meanwhile, many brokers and exporters offer high prices for raw cashew nuts to Vietnam, although the crop in Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Ghana has just begun. Buyers (importers, roasters) are still waiting and they don't want to take the risk. Everyone seems to be waiting for something (?!). In my opinion, in about 2 weeks, everything will be clearer. Obviously, processors should calmly evaluate: First , if Vietnam and Cambodia lose their crops by 30-40% as forecast, what will the supply situation be like? I think the total supply will decrease by about 10% because the total raw cashew production of Vietnam and Cambodia is about 1.2 million tons/year (provided that production in West Africa and India is normal). SecondWill the price of raw cashews increase? This is uncertain because the kernel price in the short term is very low and the increase in crude prices mainly affects Vietnamese processors and exporters, while India is "innocuous" because they have a very good domestic market. But because Vietnam has a large export market share, if Vietnam is affected, it will not benefit cashew-producing countries like West Africa and Cambodia, which are still heavily dependent on Vietnam. , consumers, retailers probably don't want to lack Vietnamese cashews on the shelves Thirdly , what are consumers' desires?It is certain that the purchasing power of nuts will still be high in 2022 the concern is quality and price I think they are willing to accept prices like 2021 or a few percent higher. In my opinion, VINACAS and the leading cashew processing and exporting enterprises in Vietnam should urgently organize 2 conferences: 1 conference on raw cashew nuts, 1 conference on cashew kernels (online meetings are also possible). It is important that everyone, by their prestige, invites well-meaning large domestic and foreign enterprises to participate. This is a playground that facilitates everyone to listen, share, discuss, create a common voice in the market to promote business, promote consumption according to the principle of "win-win" Win)".