<p>There is great optimism for the new cashew season which has just started. And the year which has just passed, often rightly described as annus horribilis, was not for cashew. On the contrary, the worldwide consumption of cashew kernels has been record! The cashew market has shown resilience but the Covid-19 pandemic has nevertheless shaken it in particular by disrupting the supply chain. And then, almond prices fell from 3.15 cents per pound for WW320 in January to a low of 2.80 cents and then rebounded later in the year. An attractively priced almond, surely undervalued, and which rides the wave of health and alternatives to animal proteins. </p> <p>A ravenous appetite for cashew kernels</p> <p>aca_prix.png</p> <p>Global consumption of cashew kernels continues to grow, pandemic or not. If in the second quarter, concerns about a drop in demand appeared, they were denied. " This is a very strong trend and it will continue," said specialist Jim Fitzpatrick yesterday during the African Cashew Alliance (ACA) market update. In the mature United States market, consumption increased by 8% in 2020. Equally spectacular was that of the European market, which rose 17% after an increase of 15% in 2019. A Europe that would have overtaken by the American market in 2020, emphasizes Jim Fitzpatrick.<br /> As a result, the world's largest cashew processor saw its cashew kernel exports</p> <p>consumption.png</p> <p>climb more than 10%. According to Vietnam customs statistics given by n'kalô, they increased by 13% to 514 658 tonnes.<br /> However, imports of raw nuts fell in Vietnam in 2020, down 13% to 1.455 Mt. While Africa remains the main source, including Côte d'Ivoire with nearly 33% of Vietnamese supply, Cambodia's rise to power is asserting itself with a 23% increase in imported volumes, now representing around 15% of supply. As a smaller supplier, Indonesia also saw its cashew nut exports climb by 22% to Vietnam. This is a sign that the harvest was good in Vietnam but also that raw cashew nut stocks are low at the start of the season. They are, moreover, in all the major processing countries.</p> <p>Promising harvests for 2021</p> <p>The cashew nut harvests in 2021 are well under way, say several analysts. They are expected to at least stand at 3.5 million tonnes (Mt), roughly the same level as 2020 under the baseline assumption, but could climb to 3.8 Mt, according to Jim Fitzpatrick.</p> <p>While harvests in East Africa are expected to decline again, those in West Africa should progress again, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire where production could climb to 900,000 tonnes, or 12.5% ​​of more than in 2020. The West Africa region is also consolidating its position as the first source for raw cashew nuts with 45% of world production, 54% for Africa as a whole.<br /> However, it is still too early to know exactly. The climatic hazards, the La Lina phenomenon on production in Asia, ... can still change the situation. </p> <p>An Africa that is transforming more and more. According to initial estimates from n'kalô, Africa processed 139,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts in 2020, including 70,000 tonnes in Côte d'Ivoire, 24,000 tonnes in Nigeria, 13,500 tonnes in Burkina Faso, 12,500 tonnes tonnes in Ghana and 10,000 tonnes in Benin. Ivory Coast's cashew nut exports are said to have climbed 20% to reach 14,515 tonnes in 2020.</p> <p>A trend that should continue over the next few years. The Covid-19 pandemic also highlighted the weaknesses and risks of the supply, noted Jim Fitzpatrick. In particular, the risks linked to the strong dependence on a single origin, Vietnam, and a very long chain. Shorter, more sustainable and more agile supply chains should therefore be favored, he believes. So many developments which should also promote transformation in Africa. More cyclically, we can also observe today the container deficit in Asia with as a corollary an increase in freight rates and delivery times between Asia and the other continents.</p>